Was wäre gewesen, wenn …? Vom Nutzen des Kontrafaktischer Geschichtsschreibung

This article is a “think piece” for counterfactual history. It claims that the mere (re)construction of the actual pattern of events is not sufficient to understand the whole setting of a historical situation, especially when history takes an unexpected turn. Historians need to consider alternative scenarios that appeared to the contemporaries as real options which were likely to take place, in order to analyze the ways in which historical structures and actors were interlinked. In this article, the interactions between the Dominican order and the Mongol invasion in the thirteenth century are described as a “history of entanglements” (Shalini Randeria). The unforeseen coincidence of these two movements highlights the contingency factor of history and raises the question of other possible outcomes. By asking for alternative scenarios from three different angles, the author seeks to show the degree of entanglement between the Mendicant and the Mongol movement and to demonstrate the use of counterfactual thinking for dealing with contingency.